COP30 exposed the deep global tensions surrounding fossil fuels. Early in the conference, President Lula placed a fossil fuel transition roadmap at the centre of the Leaders’ Summit, creating a major political inflection point. Over the two weeks, more than 80 countries publicly supported the need to move from political commitment to concrete planning. This was an unprecedented signal that the debate has shifted. The question is no longer whether to transition away from fossil fuels, but how, how fast, and importantly: through which partnerships. 

Colombia and the Netherlands reinforced this momentum through their leadership of the Belém Declaration the Just Transition Away from Fossil Fuels and by announcing the world’s first International Conference on the Just Transition Away from Fossil Fuels in April 2026. Their efforts highlighted that, as geopolitical and economic pressures intensify, global progress may increasingly rely on coalitions of the willing rather than full multilateral consensus. 

Despite this political energy of many, Brazil failed to secure strong fossil fuel language in the final COP30 outcomes. COP30 President André Corrêa do Lago acknowledged this gap in the closing session, noting the “greater ambitions” many parties had hoped for. He announced, however, that the Presidency will develop a roadmap for a just, orderly and equitable transition away from fossil fuels, supported by resource mobilisation in a “just and planned” manner. While not an official COP outcome, this commitment keeps the political momentum alive and signals the Presidency’s intention to advance ambition through other channels.  

This dynamic of strong leadership in times of limited formal progress shows that the moment of delivery has arrived. Yet the gap between ambition and capability remains wide. With climate impacts worsening and fiscal constraints tightening, the just energy transition has become as much a governance and political economy challenge as a technological one. Success will require coordinated leadership across national, regional and local levels.  

In this context, the Under2 Coalition is well aligned with the global momentum we saw. COP30 reinforced three messages for subnationals: 

  1. Implementation is subnational. The pace and credibility of the transition depend on the governments that manage grids, planning, licensing and labour transitions. In 2024, territories governed by states and regions produced roughly 73 per cent of the world’s oil and 71 per cent of its gas. Their role is therefore decisive. The forthcoming IISD–Under2 report will outline practical pathways for transition planning that align national ambition with local realities. 
     
  2. Progress will be led by coalitions able to act. With multilateral consensus increasingly hard to achieve, practical delivery will come from global alliances, such as those behind Colombia’s Belem Declaration – and equally as important, implementing levels of government such as those in the Under2 Coalition. Sharing subnational solutions, scaling successes and collective action will be critical. 
     
  3. Delivery is the next frontier. The world now needs community-centred transition pathways, backed by enabling policy reforms and real investment flows. Targeted mechanisms and facilities that target real-economy actors implementing the transition is critical. 

Over the last two years, as a Coalition, we have prioritised the just transition away from fossil fuels. We have elevated subnational political leadership on the issue – from the joint call with C40 cities to end fossil fuel subsidies, to our Subnational Call to Action on Fossil Fuels issued by our Co-Chairs in week 1 of COP30. We have decisively set out our commitment to support stronger international cooperation on this matter and positioned us as key partners in shaping an equitable global transition.  

The next phase will focus on two priorities. First, accelerating electrification and strengthening the subnational policy, regulatory and market conditions needed for rapid deployment of renewables. Second, developing credible, actionable pathways and projects that reduce dependence on fossil fuels in heavy industry, transport and buildings. 

COP30 made clear that states and regions are central to global progress. The Under2 Coalition is ready to drive this transition with determination and collective purpose. 

Nehmat Kaur – Director, Under2 Coalition and Subnational Governments